Abstract
In the present study, two procedures of capacity-yield are applied to estimate the reliability of
Dokan reservoir using data generation techniques. These procedures are the probability matrix
(Gould) procedure, and the behavior analysis. Vulnerability, and resilience, are also calculated in the
second procedure .The data is generated by using four approaches ,namely ,Thomas-Fiering model
with log –transformation (TF-log), Two-Tier model (TTM), modified Two-Tier model (MTTM) and
modified Fragment model (MFM).These models are tested and compared with the historical data. It is
concluded that among these four procedures the Thomas-Fiering model with log –transformation is
the most appropriate for representing the Dokan reservoir inflow .Three factors are examined to
determine their influence on the minimum storage estimate .These are the length of stochastically
generated sequence, the initial state of storage ,and the starting month. The results reported here show
that sequences as long as 10,000 years or more may be needed to minimize the effects of these
factors.
